And Then, There Was One...

That’s all there is to it, sports fans. One more race, and we’ll know who will contend for the title in 2011.

The annual Chase-deciding race at Richmond is upon us, and we look forward to seeing who emerges from the hue and cry with a shot to win the coveted NASCAR Sprint Cup.

The usual suspects are in the running, with Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick leading the way. It is ironic, perhaps, that the two drivers who were put on probation earlier this year for the contretemps at Darlington will likely be ranked 1-2 heading into the Chase.

And it makes for some interesting by-play if they happen to tangle again in the early rounds of the Chase. Can you imagine, the two of them starting 1-2 at Chicagoland after rain washes out qualifying? I’d pay money for the first 10 laps!

Jimmie Johnson, if he doesn’t win at RIR, will be seeded no better than fifth. As of right now, Kyle Busch is the top seed, with Harvick and Atlanta winner Jeff Gordon tied for second. Matt Kenseth has two wins and will be seeded fourth, with Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman in some order behind them.

Then come the ninth- and 10th-place drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart. Earnhardt has a 25-point cushion over 11th place Brad Keselowski, and Stewart has 23 in hand.

Earnhardt Jr. can clinch with a finish of 20th or better and Stewart can do the same by finishing 18th or better.

Keselowski is already in the Chase as a wild-card, and Denny Hamlin is hanging on by virtue of his victory at Michigan and the fact that his closest pursuer, Brickyard 400 winner Paul Menard, is 20th in the points, 52 behind.

That means he can’t overtake him on points, because max available is 48, so he would have to win at Richmond for that to happen.

Several others still have a shot, but for most, it’s so long as to be virtually hopeless.

Clint Bowyer, who finished 36th at Atlanta after misjudging the closing rate of Juan Pablo Montoya and smacking the wall 85 laps from the finish, has no shot at the top 10, but could still get in by winning at Richmond and hoping Hamlin has a bad night.

David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose have to win and be in the top 20 in points to make the Chase, as that would be their second to Hamlin’s one. A bevy of others, including A.J. Allmendinger, Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne and Joey Logano, could win and earn enough points to overtake the rest.

So, we enter the final weekend of the regular season with nine of the 12 Chasers already known. The final three spots are up for grabs…among 10 drivers.

Many scoffed at the idea of the wild-card system put in place this year. Who is scoffing now? This is a lot better than the last couple of years, in terms of buzz for the Chase, isn’t it?

Stay tuned to the blog on www.onmc.com, and on Facebook and Twitter!