iNSIDE SCOOP: We’ve Seen This Movie

In the nine previous Chase scenarios, five of them have been won by one driver: Jimmie Johnson.

Some years he was just dominant, brushing aside any attempt to threaten his point lead. 2007, 2008 and 2009 were examples of that. How he and his team did it is the better question and one of the things that applies is the fact that over the final 10 races of the season, he’s just so consistent and maddeningly correct that you can’t beat him.

When the pressure kicks up, so does the 48 team. Last year and 2011 were notable exceptions, as he was not the unflappable warrior that just won, baby. He isn’t that this year, either, but it’s close enough.

At Talladega, he finished 13th, an un-48-like performance at a track where it’s 6-5 and pick ‘em every time they take the green. Matt Kenseth finished 20th, and gave up the point lead for the first time since the Chase began.

That usually spells doom for the field, because Johnson goes from Talladega to a place where he has won more than anyone not named Petty, as in Richard, who has 15 grandfather clocks scattered around suburban Randleman, NC. or Waltrip, as in Darrell, who has 11 of the big clocks at home in Owensboro. Martinsville is the place, and it’s where Five-Time usually drives a stake through the other contenders’ hearts.

Will he or won’t he? If you are a gambling sort, you have to bet the over on this one. Of his eight victories on the tiny .526-mile paperclip, six have come in the fall, during the Chase for the most part. It’s his velvet hammer, the one he uses to beat back the rest of the hordes chasing the silver Tiffany trophy he has five of at home on the mantle.

Who won there in the spring? You guessed it. Who won there last fall? Right again.

Martinsville is the House that Clay Earles Built, but Jimmie Johnson has the lease. His average finish in 17 starts is 3.9. His average Driver Rating is 123.8, and his high mark in that all-inclusive stat is 149.1…just .9 off perfect.

Nobody, with the possible exception of Jeff Gordon, has anything like those stats. And Gordon’s best work was in the previous two decades. 

Unless something strange happens, Johnson will add to his lead this weekend. Matt Kenseth averages 14.1 per finish, and his average Driver Rating is 80.5. He’s never won there. It’s a mismatch, plain and simple. Of course, Kenseth runs better at Texas than Johnson, Phoenix is a push and Homestead has to favor Kenseth, but can he build enough momentum to close it out?

I kind of doubt it, even though I would like to see the battle go until the checkered at Homestead.

It’s going to take a crash, a penalty or a blown engine to stop Johnson at Martinsville. It is going to take a miracle from Jason Ratcliff and the boys on the 20 team to engineer a victory for Kenseth.

We’ve seen this movie play out five times already, and I can’t help but think it’s all spooled up for a rerun this year.