iNSIDE SCOOP: Four More To Go

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup is nearly upon us, and after Sunday’s race at Michigan, there will be but three races left before we find out who our 12 warriors will be.

It’s a lot easier to figure out who won’t be in the Chase right now.

Juan Pablo Montoya won’t, nor will Marcos Ambrose. Danica Patrick? Not a chance.

Tony Stewart is also one of those who won’t be Chasing, and that’s because he’s flat on his back with his leg elevated over his heart on doctor’s orders. I imagine the docs have adjusted his pain meds so he’s not a complete grump, but it can’t be any fun. I know…I’ve been in the same situation and it bites, let me tell you.

Jeff Gordon? Don’t know. Kurt Busch? Seems like he’s got a better-than-even chance. JoLo? 50-50 at best, and ditto for Jamie Mac, among others.

Michigan is a place where you can ride to the front fairly easily, provided your car can run high and low, with a smattering of right-down-the-middle. Of course, when the average speed is above 200 mph, it’s anybody’s guess how that will play out.

Bristol is not the high-speed food processor it used to be, but it’s tiny by comparison and should scramble some Chase hopes in the Tennessee night. Atlanta? It’s like Michigan with a dogleg, and Richmond is perhaps the most perfect track upon with the series races.

It’s fast, fairly wide especially off the fourth corner and has a ton of grip lately. It’s like Bristol in that it’s banked, like Michigan in that there are multiple grooves and like Atlanta in that both Virginia and Georgia are traditional Southern states.

What happens this weekend may be less about the wheel-to-wheel than the cylinder-to-cylinder. Michigan is outrageously tough on engines, because you are wide-flippin’-open from the jump, and if your valve train picks that time to go in the dumper, you’re sitting in your car in the garage, listening to the oil cooler vent fluid in a steady stream.

It happens a lot. Just ask Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch. Or Gordon, for that matter.

This might be Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s last best shot to earn a victory and solidify his Chase chances. If it’s him that blows up, there’s a chance he might be on the outside looking in. What would that do to Junior Nation, not to mention the TV ratings? We’re already down a three-time champion, and a four-timer is just clinging to the cusp of the Chase by some very gnawed-on fingernails.

Shoot, until last week the DEFENDING champion was on the outside looking in. But Brad Keselowski ran second at the Glen and got back in the top 10 in points, albeit without the necessary victory.

Since the hammer fell at Earnhardt Ganassi Racing on Juan Pablo Montoya, you can consider the gloves to be officially off. He won’t do anything stupid, not if he wants another ride, but he’ll be less constrained by points racing and more motivated by showing well.

Back in 2009, he found something (aerodynamically) that he parlayed into a Chase berth, and was in the thick of things until a bad string of races left him hanging.

Here’s hoping JPM finds a good ride, whether it’s in NASCAR or wherever. He’s too good a wheel-man to stay on the sidelines for long, in my opinion.