iNSIDE SCOOP: NASCAR’s Big Gamble

Well, doubtless by now you’ve heard that NASCAR has taken its Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and made it into a 16-car elimination game that will crown the season champion by virtue of a four-driver shootout in the final race of the season.

I’m sure you have your opinions on it, too. You’re race fans, and you do have opinions, and that’s a good thing.

For now, 10 months ahead of the first iteration, there are more questions than answers. All anybody has is opinion.

One of the big ones is: what if it doesn’t work? Two things on that: if it doesn’t work, it will change again, and if it does, then we’re all set.

I don’t see why it won’t. NASCAR drivers are trying as hard as they can to win races right now. Brad Keselowski said that nothing could make him drive any harder than he does right now. Coming from BK, I believe that. What is ironic is, he had the chance to win at Watkins Glen, but wouldn’t dump Kyle Busch to get there. What do you want to bet that won’t be the case if it happens again?

It means that drivers and crew chiefs will pull out the old gambler’s bag a little more instead of playing it safe for the points. Short-stopping, fuel gambles, no tires, two tires, bump-and-run…it’s all on the table.

It sounds to me like there are several aspects of this format change that are TBD, and that can be good and bad. Good in that there's still time to fix whatever might be a problem, and bad in how NASCAR determines the limits on what can be done to try and win a race. It will be tested, you may be sure.

On the surface, it does what NASCAR fans say they want the Chase to be: it rewards winning and risk-taking.

On the other hand, an ill-timed tire issue or blown engine could whack out Dale Jr. or Six-Time or Carl Edwards, and there you have it. Fan bases will be sick. But is that any different than the playoffs in other sports? No, it isn’t.

Some folks are whining about that aspect. Can’t blame them, really, but you can’t have cake and not gain weight, so to speak. If you’re consistent but don’t win races, you’re going to have to figure out how under the new format.

Of course, there have been very few years in which 16 different drivers have won a race in the first 26. If it’s less than that, the field will be filled by points. From then on, it’s the same way up until the final round. So you can be consistent, not win and still make the one-race showdown.

Still, there’s plenty of skepticism about the changes. To be frank, I would be shocked if there wasn’t, and I’d wonder what was wrong with the fan base. One wag tweeted that the old (I mean pre-Chase) point system was written on the back of a bar napkin; this one was written on the back of a TV ratings chart.

There’s some truth to that statement. Like it or not, numbers mean things, and there are no numbers more important than TV numbers in NASCAR.

What does it all mean? It means “points racing” (and that’s not a friendly term among NASCAR fans) is officially dead, at least as a way to win a title. That’s good in a way; the issue will be determined on the track, the way it should be.

We’ll see how this all works, and by Thanksgiving, we’ll have a better idea if this was a successful strategy on NASCAR’s part. We’ll know for sure then. We’ll probably have a few opinions along the way, I’m sure.