iNSIDE SCOOP: Nitty-Gritty

There are four races to go until the Chase, and the storm is coming for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series.

The first hammer fell at Watkins Glen, which is rapidly turning into one of the better races of the season. Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski once again battled down to the end—minus the oil slicks and Marcos Ambrose—with Busch winning his third race of the season.

Jeff Gordon crashed hard and finished 36th, which put him in a hole vis a vis qualifying for a chance at title No. 5. 

Tony Stewart was absent, and he plunged to 17th in the points. He won’t be in the Chase this year, because of his badly broken right leg. 

Keselowski, up until Sunday, was in a bigger hole than Gordon regarding the Chase, and he’s the defending champion. He’s back in the top 10 in points, but still close enough to 10th to have a bellyache for the next four weeks.

Jimmie Johnson was a pedestrian (for him) 13th at The Glen, but it was good enough for him to clinch the first Chase spot with four weeks remaining. Like that was ever an issue, but hey, it’s news.

Clint Bowyer and Carl Edwards will likely do it in the next two races, and Kevin Harvick, Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth will probably clinch at Bristol or Atlanta. That leaves the final three spots up for grabs.

Keselowski is 11 points ahead of 11th-place Kurt Busch in eighth spot. Greg Biffle is four up on Busch, and Martin Truex Jr. is just two points inside the top 10. 

Busch is knocking on the door, despite not having a victory to help him in the Wild Card race. Kasey Kahne occupies the 11th spot based on two victories, and Brickyard 400 winner Ryan Newman is 12th, based on his victory there.

Jeff Gordon sits 15 points out in 13th, again without a victory, and he could still get into the top 10 on points. If he wins, he’ll punt Newman back a spot, though the two are separated by just five points with four races left.

Jamie McMurray has quietly put himself in Chase contention, sitting 15th in points and just five points and one victory behind Newman.

Joey Logano is on a roll of three straight top-10 finishes and sits 27 points out in 16th. He could roll to the top 10 with a steady performance.

Stewart is toast, despite his victory at Dover, and will fall out of the top 20 in a couple of weeks. Aric Almirola is 18th and 64 points out of 10th, Paul Menard is 19th and 66 points out, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is 20th and 94 points out of 10th. Those four are likely going to be Chase-less, barring a big run of good luck and a startling run of bad luck by the others above them.

Michigan is usually not a big attrition race, but with the way the engines are twisting these days, it might be one this weekend. Bristol is anybody’s guess, and Atlanta is Michigan with steeper banks. It all comes down to Richmond.