Margin Call

The rule of thumb in Chases past has been, to a certain degree, that you have at least one race to use as a mulligan and still be in line to win the title.

It’s worked since 2004, when Kurt Busch broke a transmission at Atlanta and still came back to win. It was super-close, and he came a great move—when the tire came off and he missed pit wall--from losing it anyway, but still, he had the mulligan.

Tony Stewart, during his epic 2005 victory—won by 18 points at Homestead after Greg Biffle won the race to make it that close—had a mulligan at New Hampshire and still came back to win it.

But that was in the days of 185-point victories and a much bigger spread. Today’s single-point breakdown means that the margin, slim as it was, is no longer there.

That was proven by the results at Chicagoland Speedway on Monday, when Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. guessed right and nearly everyone else guessed wrong on fuel mileage.

As a result, the points are all farbled up, and they look nothing like they did heading in.

Jimmie Johnson ran dry and finished 11th, and he dropped two spots to eighth in the points. Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch ran out of gas too and dropped from third to 11th (Gordon) and first to ninth (Busch).

The point swings are shorter, and that puts the ones who ran out in a veritable desert for the rest of the Chase…unless it happens again. And it might at New Hampshire.

The idea of a mulligan in golf is basically to have a do-over with no penalty. Say you hit one into the weeds at the tee box. You can put down another ball, hit it, play it and go on.

In the Chase, if you hit one into the weeds—or drive your car there—you’re not allowed to pull another one out and there IS a penalty.

It has always been a maxim of the Chase that you can have one bad finish and still have a chance. In some years, it’s been more than one, but more often it is just the one.

Last year’s Chase is a perfect example. Denny Hamlin won at Texas but suffered at Phoenix, and while he still took a lead to Homestead, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick were right there with him.

Pressure being what it is, and the fact that Hamlin had to start at the tail brought the Chase right back to Four-Time, and it resulted in him being Five-Time this time around.

Hamlin, who finished 31st at Chi-town, got his mulligan off the first tee. He’s 41 points out with nine to play, and that’s huge with a capital H.

New Hampshire, the second race of the Chase, has always been a big problem right off the bat. Flat track, premium on handling, tight pit road…it was a nightmare.

Plus, at New Hampshire, if you do hit something, it’s coming back on a hook or in a basket. It’s a long way to the wall from the racing line, and you’re going fast enough where it doesn’t make that big a difference where you hit.

Chances are, if you mulligan at NHMS, you’re going to need to play better than par the rest of the way. With tracks like Talladega, Martinsville and Texas in that mix, it’s darn near impossible.

Nothing happens in a vacuum, of course, but you essentially have to race yourself in the Chase. If your Chase buds are screwing up by the numbers, you can’t rest easy, because it could just as easily be you next time out.

With the margins not as big, it might seem easier to make up ground, but consider this: if you trail by 40 points, you have to finish a combined 40 spots ahead of your rival to draw even. You can do that in one race, sure, but the chances aren’t that good.

The math is similar, but the points take on a mind of their own.

All in all, if one of the Chasers gets in a hole early, it’s going to be harder than ever to dig out of, because the rest of them will be throwing dirt in just as fast as they can.

At the end of the day, the new points did what they were supposed to, which is even the playing field and reward consistency over victories. Maximum points of 48 is the key. If you max out every race, you’ll wind up with 2,480 points. That’s the best anyone can do.

In the old days, you got 34 points for starting the race, and if you led that was five more. 43rd-place points with no laps led equals…one point. That’s a big deal.

At the end of the day, the Chaser who strings together top-five and top-10 finishes while staying away from 20th or below is going to win this thing.

Stay tuned to the blog on www.onmc.com, and on Facebook and Twitter!