No Oz References, Please

Just to be clear, there will not be any Toto-Dorothy-Tin Man references in this blog. I did that in the spring and was descended upon by Kansans who are, quite frankly, sick and tired of that tired old rap.

So, I won’t be talking about the Yellow Brick Road, Glinda, the Munchkins or Bert Lahr, lest the Wicked Witch’s monkey footmen descend again upon the battlements here in Carolina.

What we will be discussing is, the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway; specifically, how the Chase racers are doing.

A 90-minute practice session earlier today revealed that only four Chasers were fast enough to make the top 10. Jeff Gordon was the best of them in third, while Matt Kenseth was fifth, Dale Earnhardt Jr. sixth and Kyle Busch eighth.

Paul Menard led the way at 174.059 mph, with Clint Bowyer a tick behind.

The remainder of the Chasers were clustered from 14th (Ryan Newman) to 32nd (Kevin Harvick). Newman, Carl Edwards (16th), Five-Time (18th) and Denny Hamlin (19th) were inside the top 20. Brad Keselowski (22nd), Tony Stewart (23rd) and Kurt Busch (27th) were in the top 30 of 46 cars and Harvick was 32nd.

What does that tell us? The qualifying order today, for one thing, and pretty much not a whole lot more.

Oh, it can tell us who was right off the truck and who has some work to do. It can tell us who might be a contender come Sunday and it can tell us a little about the mental aspect of all that.

What it can’t tell us is, who is going to win the darn thing.

Qualifying is set for 5 p.m., or just a little bit from now, and we’ll know more then.

What does the fourth race of the Chase mean? It means that after Sunday and again Saturday night in Charlotte, we’ll be halfway through. We’ll know who is out (Hamlin is already done and Newman is hanging on by his fingernails) and who is positioned for the five-race run to the roses.

My guess, if I had to make one, is that the pole winner won’t win the race, but someone who starts in the top 10 will. It’s happened seven years out of 11 at KS. I might choose one of the three multiple race winners (Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle) who have each won twice, or the last guy to win from the pole (Five-Time).

I might even pick the June winner, Keselowski, who earned his first victory of the season from 25th starting spot. I might even pick Newman, who won here in 2003. Probably won’t pick the 2004 winner, which was Joe Nemechek, because he has been starting and parking, but if he was to run the entire 267 laps, he’d be a consideration.

I probably wouldn’t pick Austin Dillon, who will be making his debut this weekend. He was 20th after practice, but it’s his first Cup race…be a nice story, but that only happens in the movies.

Who would you pick? Let me know, and enjoy the race!