Rollin' the Dice

This week’s Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup stop is the lovely little town of Talladega, Ala., a stone’s throw from Atlanta and a short trip on the wild side for the Chasers.

To call the 188-lap race a crapshoot is to be less than honest. It’s a full-throttle, wide-open, two-at-a-time thrill ride that will, in fact, help determine whether Jimmie Johnson is a six-time champ or a five-time champ.

Five-Time snap-spun into the outside wall at Charlotte with 17 laps to go and finished 34th, dropping to eighth in the points and 35 points behind Carl Edwards. That’s the opening that Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch were looking to exploit.

There’s no evidence to suggest that Johnson can’t win the title; he can. Whether he will or not is the question. Thirty-five points is a tough margin, not insurmountable, and yet a ton of points when you realize that you only get one per finishing position.

No question that JJ is in trouble like he’s never been before in the Chase, but am I ready to cover him with dirt and declare it over? Not a chance. The guy is worse than Jason; he just won’t go away when it comes to Chase point battles.

I thought after Kansas that it was his, and it still might be, but there’s a serious question as to whether that unfortunate snap spin will come back to end the streak at five. It sure looks like it to me…(cue the creepy Friday the 13th music).

Anyway, racing at Talladega will be different on Sunday, because NASCAR has listened to the fans and seriously chopped down on the Noah’s Ark-type nature of the racing there and at Daytona.

They changed the pop-off valve in the cooling system to go off earlier, which means they can’t push each other as much or as long. That ought to handle that aspect of the two-by-two racing that fans loved or hated (mostly hated).

What it means is, the swapping will be more frequent, which means the cars will be changing spots a lot more than they did in the spring or at Daytona. That could create some problems of its own, specifically when you change a lot, you increase the chances that the swap might not be as smooth as it was.

Then the crashing begins.

I think NASCAR has built its own Frankenstein monster with this kind of thing. They wanted to get away from the big pack racing they had before. Well, they did that…only to spawn the push-me, pull-you kind of racing that most fans didn’t take to. You might have big packs on Sunday, but they’ll be avoiding cars that are spinning or hitting the wall.

Just my opinion.

So, who is going to win the Chase? There’s just five races remaining, and it’s tight at the top. Edwards leads Harvick by five, with Kenseth seven back. Kyle Busch is 18 behind, and Tony Stewart is 24 points out. Keselowski is 25 out and Kurt Busch 27, with Johnson 35 back. That’s your Chase field for the final five.

Seven drivers are within 27 points of the lead, and eighth could conceivably be right back in it if a big crash eliminates first through seventh.

In other words, the first five races have told us only that Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman and Denny Hamlin are out of the picture.

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