Wet and Wild

Raindrops are fallin’ on their heads in Martinsville, which means that it’s going to be an interesting weekend in the land of pink hot dogs and the huggy-pole bump and grind.

The fall race at Martinsville is one of those events that lets you know the season is almost over. The weather is crisp, the wind cuts like an Xacto knife and the racing gets…close. It’s October, and in four weeks there’s going to be a champion crowned in Florida.

Chances are it’s not going to be Jimmie Johnson. According to NASCAR, via our friend Jayski, here’s why:

“…it doesn't look good. Five-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion #48-Jimmie Johnson now sits 50 points out of the lead after his second consecutive finish outside the top 20. Those 50 points translate to roughly 208 points under the old points system. Since 1975, the inception of the current position-based points format, the largest deficit overcome with four races remaining was 144 points by Alan Kulwicki in 1992. In the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup era (2004-present), the largest deficit overcome with four races left was 53 points, by Johnson in 2007. That roughly equates to 13 points in the new points system. Currently no driver is within 13 points of leader #99-Carl Edwards.”

There it is, in black and white. The crash at Charlotte and the strategic miscue at Talladega have run poor Five-Time into a corner. It’s not like he hasn’t had a good run, huh?

What is more interesting…in a train-wreck sort of way…is the conflict between the driver and crew chief Chad Knaus. The argument earlier in the season at New Hampshire, where JJ basically told Chad to shut up and let him drive was uncharacteristic of the pairing.

I’ve been married for the past 21 years, and I know when it’s just bickering because someone has a bee in their bonnet and needs to vent. I also know when there’s a deeper issue, and this is one of those times.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that the pairing of Chad and Jimmie could be entering the end stages. Evernham and Gordon hit the wall after a huge run of success, and it’s happened a lot over the years. Even Richard Petty and Dale Inman had a falling-out of sorts, so it’s not unprecedented.

Could it happen over the off-season? Unlikely, but it’s still possible. My guess is, they’ll sit down and patch it up over the winter and begin 2012 as a team. By the end of 2012, I’ll wager that “changes will be made” to “freshen” the dynamics of the 48 team.

Keep an eye on Ron Malec. If he’s in play, then it’s on. He is the logical successor to Chas, having been the car chief forever.

Of course, logic is a good way to be wrong with confidence, but I really don’t think so in this case.

With Jimmie in uncharted territory back in 7th place, who is the favorite? It has to be Carl Edwards, because he’s been steady and hasn’t had a huge mistake as yet. Martinsville is a good place for that to happen, however, and we’ll know more after that.

Texas and Phoenix—especially after the repaving and circuit update they’ve gone through out there—are fairly standard tracks with no surprises. Martinsville is the oldest track on the circuit and it certainly has some surprises in store.

Strange things happen there. It’s tight, it’s tiny and it’s a place where voodoo seems to be the operative concept. It might be the fact that it’s technically precise, or that the pit road is so cramped.

It might be the pink Jesse Jones hot dogs, too. Can’t wait to get up there and see!