Who's Got the Edge?

Which one of the two competitors remaining for the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title has the best record at Homestead?

Would you believe…neither?

According to NASCAR, Edwards has two victories, four top-fives, six top-10s and two poles at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Stewart has two victories, three top-fives and six top-10s. That’s a push in my book.

Edwards’ average finish is 5.7 compared to Stewart’s 12.4, but Edwards has five fewer starts there. Stewart has run all 12 races on the oft-enhanced 1.5-mile oval, and both his victories came when the track was much flatter than it is now. Push again.

The numbers Edwards wins include a plethora of “stats” that NASCAR uses to try and keep up with baseball geeks who love to rattle off things like WORP (Wins Over Replacement Player) and WHIP (Walks/Hits to Innings Pitched).

Cuz is either first or second in Average Running Position (ARP), Driver Rating, Fastest Laps Run, Average Green-Flag Speed, Laps in the top five and Quality Passes. Stewart ranks seventh through 11th in most of those. Advantage: Edwards.

Trouble with all that is, what you’ve done at a track before has little bearing on what you’ll do when the title is on the line. It’s one race, not 12. It’s one chance, and numbers never win unless you’re talking about the lottery or the SAT.

Even the season-to-date Driver Rating goes Edwards’ way, 99.8-95.1. Stewart has led 20 races for 848 laps, while Edwards led 24 races for 784 laps. Stewart has won four races, Edwards only one. And Stewart has won his in the last nine races, while Edwards has not won since March.

What does it all mean? For one thing, it means that if all goes according to Hoyle, Edwards should win. But it never goes according to Hoyle, does it?

Like I said earlier this week, this is going to come down to Dame Fortune having her way with one or the other, or both. Stewart and Edwards will finish first and second, because no one else is close enough.

Which order they finish in…that is the real question.

If it goes like it has been, we’ll be waiting for the final lap to see who is where and how it’s all going to turn out. If it doesn’t, well, we’ll still be glued to the screen and wondering what might happen. Permutations will fly, comments will be made…we’ll be all over it.

Maybe one of the guys in the race will contract Brian Vickers Syndrome, during which the affected driver mistakenly concludes that the key to winning is crashing every other car out there, and the 99 and 14 will have to deal with that.

Maybe there’ll be the old “I tripped over a lapped car and lost the title” moment, or a “man, that was a crappy set of tires, wasn’t it?” period. Maybe not. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll finish first and second and we’ll settle it the old-fashioned way: on the track.

In other news, Andy Lally is out of the No. 71 for the final race, with Mike Bliss stepping in for Homestead. Something is going on, and I can’t quite put my finger on it, but I bet it has a lot to do with the top 35 in points for the first five races of 2012.

Joe Nemechek raised some eyebrows in Daytona during aero testing, reeling off a lap at 203 miles per hour. By himself. With no drafting help. Gonna be a fun Speedweeks if that keeps up!

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