Wide Open Chase

Now that the Chase is set and the racing for a title can begin, who is the favorite?

That’s a little tougher to determine this year. In the past several years, there has been one driver who has held a decided advantage over the other Chasers, and it was easy to pick him headed in.

Stats-wise, you have to look at top seeds Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick as favorites, because they each won four races this season. Both have been dominant at times, both have been nowhere to be found at times.

Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski have won three times each, and both have taken turns as the “hot” driver of the period. Gordon has been consistent in a way that he hasn’t been for some time, and it’s been 10 years since he won the crown.

Keselowski has won three times, twice since he broke his ankle at Road Atlanta, and he’s been very good at times and pretty good most of the rest of the time. He’s got momentum, too.

Matt Kenseth won twice early and has been the sleeper pick for many. He’s like the Iceman in “Top Gun:” he never makes a mistake and finally ticks you off so that you screw up.

Carl Edwards has been consistently fast, but hasn’t been able to close the deal as often as he might have, and Kurt Busch is hot and cold (and I’m not just talking about on the radio!).

Ryan Newman won early and rode some solid runs to the Chase. Denny Hamlin took Michigan and held on for the Chase at Richmond. Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr. didn’t win, but ran well enough to finish in the top 10 in points and stay out of the wild-card mess.

That leaves us with Five-Time (I’ll let you decide if it’s Champ or Chump, a la Kurt Busch). He won once this season, which is unlike him. He had chances, but wasn’t able to capitalize.

Does that mean he will be less of a force in the Chase? Maybe. Wouldn’t bet the butter-and-egg money on it, but maybe. Chicagoland is not a great track for him, but it doesn’t mean much these days.

Chicagoland is a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile D-shaped oval (a virtual twin to Kansas save for the shape of the backstretch) and usually produces adequate racing. It is worth remembering that Keselowski won at Kansas in June.

After that, the rest of the Chase is the same…the same layout that has led to five straight titles from the 48 and his team.

Speaking of Kurt Busch, is there a regressive brat gene in those boys that makes them do stupid stuff? It’s been Kurt most of the year that has been rowdy, and he didn’t disappoint at Richmond.

After tangling twice with Johnson and finishing fifth, he got into a hissy fit with NASCAR.COM’s Joe Menzer on pit road and had to be restrained by teammates. Later, after he cooled down, he tore up a quote sheet on AP reporter Jenna Fryer’s desk, claiming he was misquoted.

In other words, he went retro and channeled his elementary-school personality on both live TV and closed-circuit. Par for the course, in my opinion. He was ticked and wasn’t afraid to show it.

On the other hand, younger brother Kyle has been positively mature this season, aside from a couple of incidents, and hasn’t gone deep-end since Darlington. He didn’t even do it there; that was mostly Harvick, who just might be the long-lost third Busch brother…but that’s my opinion.

Oh well…whatever happens from here on out, it’ll be newsworthy.

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