Will It Last?

Tony Stewart has been, so far at least, money in the Chase.

But will it last? Smoke knows how to win races, and he’s won a NASCAR title under the old system (2002) and under the Chase (2005), so he’s been here and done this. Darian Grubb was a member of the championship teams at Hendrick Motorsports before going to Stewart Haas Racing a couple of years ago.

He’s got momentum, mojo, a head of steam…but will it last?

This weekend’s race at Dover will tell us, or at least bring the picture into sharper focus. Smoke has won at Dover, but like every other driver, he’s had a stinker or three on the Monster Mile.

Why wouldn’t he? The place is wicked-fast, it’s point-and-shoot up off and stab, dive and hang on in. It’s double trouble, too, because if you hit the outside wall, you can bet your last Dale Jr. T-shirt that you’re going to hit the inside wall too.

Pit road is New York City at 5 in the afternoon, even after the improvements, and getting into the pits should be an E-ticket ride at Disney World. Add in the fact that it is going to be cooler than it has been lately this weekend and you bring cold tires into the mix as well.

All in all, you’d rather be in Philadelphia if you’re a NASCAR driver. Of course, Philly is less than an hour away…

Will fuel mileage play a role? Probably. It does everywhere else, so why not Dover? It doesn’t usually play a big role, but with the new filler nozzles and the fact that the cars get worse mileage than a minivan that’s down a cylinder and loaded with kids and stuff…you never know.

I’ve been down in Turn 2 where the inside wall begins, and I can tell you the only thing missing is stalagmites…it’s a cave. The wall looks thicker than battleship armor and it’s massive.

Who needs to have a good day? Denny Hamlin for one, but that’s a lost cause after two races. Ryan Newman is in no-man’s land, too, but he can still see the light at the end of the tunnel from the train that just squished Hamlin’s Chase hopes.

Who is 10th in the Chase? Uh, that would be 5-Time. Jimmie Johnson was junk at NHMS, and he raced like it. He’s NEVER been that low in the Chase standings, even in years when he didn’t win it, and that’s gotta be one of those things that irks him no end.

That said, he might not be able to do much about it. The sweet spot on these cars is harder to find than an honest politician, and it moves around, too. Once you lose the sweet lock on it, you can wander for days with no clue how to get it back. And needless to say, Dover isn’t the best place to be looking for it.

Fourteen points separate the top four in the points (the 14, 29, 2 and 99), and 15 more back to 10th, so it isn’t over, but it’s getting a little tight in there.

Tune in on Sunday and look here for some pithy updates as it happens! Stay tuned to the blog on www.onmc.com, and on Facebook and Twitter!